Energy Myth #3: "The right buying moment decides everything"

In conversations about energy procurement, one line comes up again and again: "We just need to time it right." The idea sounds reasonable — and it's still too short-sighted. Because no one hits the perfect buying moment reliably. Not even professionals.

• 

• 

• 

• 

What the market shows

A concrete example: on the forward market, the electricity price for delivery year 2026 swung by more than 30% depending on when you bought — for the same kilowatt-hour. And gas was no calmer in 2026: over the course of the year its range was of a similar magnitude, driven by geopolitical spikes and storage levels. Whoever closed near the low was lucky, not a better forecaster.

Why the myth persists

"Let's wait a bit longer" feels right. But the power market is driven by external forces — geopolitics, crises, the CO₂ price and the weather. In 2026 the market reversed direction several times: at times weaker gas and oil prices dampened it, then geopolitical risks and rising CO₂ costs pushed it back up. That's exactly why the "best" day can't be planned in advance. Waiting for it means playing against the structure of the market.

What works far more reliably

It's not the single execution date that decides — it's the approach:- Define fixed triggers instead of gut feeling — price or calendar rules make decisions traceable, not emotional.- Plan procurement ahead of contract expiry — so you buy with lead time and room to act, not under time pressure.- Continuous monitoring instead of a one-off look — the market moves across the entire term.- Buy in tranches instead of on a single date — this smooths the average price and takes out timing risk.

The NeoBid view

Timing is luck. Strategy is controllable. That's exactly where NeoBid comes in: we combine fixed triggers, continuous market intelligence, and tranche-based procurement on a data-driven platform. Not a bet on the perfect moment, but a repeatable process that systematically reduces timing risk.

Conclusion

The "right buying moment" is a figure you only know in hindsight — no one hits it reliably in advance. Procuring energy strategically makes you independent of a single day's luck. So the question isn't "When do we buy?" but "By what strategy?".