Energie-Mythos #8: Prices Will Fall Anyway
One line comes up a lot in 2026: “Prices will fall anyway.” It sounds reassuring — and it’s still too short-sighted. Because it mistakes a hope for a forecast.
What the market shows
Energy prices are driven by outside forces — geopolitics, weather, storage levels and the CO2 price. When a crisis eases, prices can fall; when a new uncertainty appears, they rise again. In the short term the market stays volatile, and over the long term the direction can’t be forecast reliably. Waiting for “the” falling price is a bet on a moment no one hits dependably.
Why the myth persists
“Let’s wait a bit” feels sensible — after all, it might get cheaper. What gets overlooked is the seasonal pattern: towards year-end, prices for the following delivery year often edge up, because many buyers wait at the same time. That collective waiting creates catch-up effects that frequently prevent the hoped-for low.
What works instead of waiting
It isn’t the single moment that decides, but a clear plan:
Monitor the market continuously instead of betting on one date.
Buy in tranches instead of all at once — this smooths the average price.
Close at predefined target values rather than on gut feeling.
Start ahead of contract expiry, with lead time instead of under pressure.
Set budget and risk limits in advance.
Keep your data prepared and ready for the market at any time.
The NeoBid view
For asset managers, it isn’t the perfect low that secures the budget — it’s a controllable procurement plan. That’s where NeoBid comes in: we monitor the market continuously and buy in tranches at predefined target values — a repeatable process instead of a bet on falling prices.
Conclusion
“Prices will fall anyway” is a hope, not a strategy. Procuring to a plan makes you independent of a single moment’s luck.
NeoBid doesn’t think of energy as a price comparison — but as a strategic value driver for real estate portfolios.
